Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Auto industry lessons from the HD DVD vs blu-ray war

We're desperate for new technology in our automobiles. We (even the SUV lovers) want more efficient technology, alternative fuels, and affordable vehicles. Where are these machines of the future? Where's my flying car?

I have no doubt that car manufacturers want to develop new tech. That industry is suffering, GM believes that the era of the SUV is over. Even high efficiency car sales are slowing as people struggle to justify making payments on such expensive cars and still have to pay for gas.

Listening to NPR last night, the discussion had turned to GM and Ford's ventures into all-electric cars. While a noble move (GM should have continued with the EV1 project from the 90s), the production cars are still predicted to be in the $30-40k price range. This puts these cars out of the price range for a large portion of the population. Heck, the Prius starts at $21,500 according to Toyota's Web site; that's still out of my budget. I will pay less over the life of my car by buying used and somewhat efficient instead.

So, why the delay and why the high price? Manufacturers will need to spend a ton of money to develop the new tech, and they don't know what to invest in! Do they make the current engines more efficient? What about hybrids, diesel hybrids, biodiesel hybrids, or natural gas? Ethanol or fuel cells? Where should they begin?

Like anyone else, they want to invest in the winning technology. Look at HD DVD and blu-ray DVD technology. HD DVD was the first to the gate, prices weren't bad. A lot of money was invested in developing it and marketing it. Looked like a winner too, with the backing of companies and a fresh market share. blu-ray, on the other hand, was delayed, was considerable more expensive, had mostly Sony backing, but was a more advanced technology. A safe bet would have been HD DVD.

Now HD DVD is dead as a format and blu-ray is gaining ground on "traditional" DVD sales.

Who would you have the car manufacturers put all of their chips with? Financially and ecologically, there's a lot more at stake here.

I wish someone would come up with a Mr. Fusion.